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Football events and odds analisys
After you have opened accounts at several online bookmakers, and after you are familiar with their rules and procedures, after you have weighed the risk, it is time to get to work, you`re into betting! It`s time to get an opinion about the bookmakers` offer, to gather useful information about teams and events.
Here are the steps necessary, a possible key to success.
1. The overview
Find out who and what offers. Consider several bookmakers. Make a comparison between odds offered by different bookmakers and select the best ones.
2. Superficial analysis of the offer
Before starting to analyze carefully the offer is good to `scan``superficially. We say this because if you are connected to a match (or event), you will know immediately when a good opportunity arises. Often, you don`t have to analyze very deep a game to you decide whether or not to bet on that match. If you can not decide whether or not to bet on a match or event, perhaps, after all, it is not even a very good match - a very good chance for you. At this stage it is not good to give so much attention, just observe the events you feel they will bring you a secure income.
3. Statistical analysis
One thing should be well noted: statistics should not be the only criteria when choosing a game to bet on it. Statistics should be used only as an information in addition to your own `feeling`. Use only statistics you have a slight doubt on a bet and only as a supplement in addition to other criteria. The relevant statistics are: to-date league table, the last games played by each team, the direct results between teams in the last 5-10 years.
4. Team health - injuries
Before you place your bet, you should take into account the situation of teams. Bookmakers present their offer (odds) long before the match starts, for which they are not necessarily aware of the injury situation. Here the bettor has a slight advantage over the bookmaker, so that he can inform even until the last minute before the match starts. If an important player (or more) of a team are injured, then you should revisit your bet, especially if it is an average team or weaker depending on a key player.
5. Type of match
What kind of match you want to bet: a cup match, international league, a friendly? National cups are often very difficult to predict and vary depending on the country holding the tournament. In England, `League cup` is still important. In Germany, France, Spain and Italy, due to busy program, several major teams bring their reserves in cup matches, as it is unimportant. In France very rare for two or more large teams reach the quarterfinals stages of the cup. Even in England, teams like Manchester United rest their important players in the cup games. It is better to avoid these games.
Consideration should be treated with the cup finals. Even if the media is a great favorite team, statistics say that cup finals are open to any result, whatever the difference in value between the two teams.
Matches in European Cups (Champions League, UEFA Cup) are easier to `predicted` than other cup or league matches. In the first rounds (phases) of these competitions may be some surprises. But as we move in stages, teams that play at home tend to win more easier. Inter-country friendly matches very often end in a draw.
6. In what championship is the game played?
In Italy when large teams meet each other, often a game is equal. Norwegian First Division is often very predictable. In England, the results are very unpredictable and there are many surprises, generally in the first and last quarter of the season. Germany has become much more unpredictable than it was several seasons ago. French Championship has a high percentage of home wins.
7. How important is that match?
Big European teams play very many games each season. It is almost impossible for the top teams have a constant evolution throughout the season. During the season, teams from the middle ranking (without a high goal) often win against strong teams or against teams that aim only to `survive` the first league. Teams that have no purpose, not playing for anything, they are playing without pressure and they are playing very well.
Already relegated teams play better when their fate is sealed, with the pressure gone. It`s good so beware of such matches, which have unpredictable results.
Local derby`s should be treated with great care. They tend to finish with a draw, the fear of losing overcoming the will to win. Such matches are Rome - Lazio or Inter - Milan, teams share the same stadium. Is advisable to bet on these matches X.
The first round of European Cups can bring surprises, as favorites `never` tend to play to they true value in the leg, if it is played away from home. Large teams know they can do everything at home, in return, and often go on tour for a draw or a slight defeat. Do not bet on friendlies, whether international or pre-season matches As no stake in the game, it is difficult to predict such a match.
8. What time do the games play?
In many European leagues, the season begins in August and ends in May. In the first quarter of the season (August - September-October) results can be very unpredictable and often less rated teams beat big teams. Now is the time if you want to bet on surprises, the small teams, with their peak.
November and March, championships are `calm`, and put things back to normal. Results are `normal` and the top teams win easily. Now we promote teams that have had a better start to lose first.
Championship last quarter (from April), results can be harder to predict. Teams in the relegation some are desperate and this makes this part of the championship to be difficult for gamblers. You may have to gain by betting money on the few teams less favorable than bet good money on the favorite. In Scandinavian championships (Norway, Finland and Sweden) and those from Russia and Ukraine, the season begins in April-May and ends in October. Top teams from these countries often have a bad start, especially those who have participated in European Cups (teams like Rosenborg). Starting June, these teams can start winning without any problems.
9. How and when using the league tables?
Early season rankings should not be used at all, because they do not say much. Expect the season to `sit` and you can begin to use the rankings, after about a quarter of the season. Even then, rankings should never be used as the only criterion in choosing a match. Remember that bookmakers using charts and statistics for the last 5-10 years when they decide what odds to offer.
10. Form of the teams
One of the most important criteria used by bookmakers in setting rates is the form in which there are teams. Teams are almost always shaped recognized and appreciated by bookmakers, and the odds are reflecting this. A team that won the last 4 games are rarely offered good odds at a bookmaker. You must identify a team as early as possible, to have good earnings, before the agency drops the odds for that team. During a season, teams go through periods of good or bad luck. Teams can play poorly for a while, then, a change in management of the team makes the situation to change to 180 degrees, and the team to start winning again. To be successful, it is important to identify these early periods, before the bookmaker.
11. Recent history
Some players do not take into account all statistics for the last 5-10 years when they place a bet. Successful players do not use this as a vital criteria. However, if the other criteria (eg shape, classification and time) indicates a prediction and recent history shows the opposite, they prefer to abandon the match and no longer bet.
Statistics for the last five years may indicate psychological superior (or inferior as appropriate) teams.
For example in England, the top teams have so-called `team scarecrows`. For example, Manchester United never beat Sheffield W. at home. It is also recognized that Italian teams won against English teams in European competitions.
These things seem superstitious, but it is unwise not to take into account when you see it happen every time.
12. Special circumstances
Special attention should be given to the latter stages. Many times you can find so-called `strategic` matches, (in many games involving teams fighting to avoid relegation or to win the title). Italian league (Serie A) is also known for easy to predict games in the last stage of the championship, where teams need points to win from those who do not need. For example, a team needs a draw to win the championship, while the other needs only a point to avoid relegation. Bookmakers are very careful in these situations and odds are divided. A draw will come in the Italian championship, but you could not see the same results in the Premeir League, because English typical honesty makes teams for pride and vanity. Advice is to bet on draw for these matches, but most often bookmakers will not have those events in their offer.